Heron Atlas.Macro research deskHeron Atlas

European Central Bank statement: what changed

October 29 decision: All three key rates unchanged (deposit facility 2.50%, main refinancing 2.65%, marginal lending 2.90%)

Compared with September 10: 4 rewritten, 4 added, 9 removed

Next decision: (in 46 days)

What changed

The September 10 statement came with ECB staff macroeconomic projections, which are published four times a year (March, June, September and December); the October meeting had none. Source ↗

Rewritten

September 10

The Governing Council today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points.

October 29

The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged.

Removed

September 10

  • The conflict in the Middle East continues to generate inflation pressures, and inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period.

4 added

October 29

  • Energy prices have continued to rise, posing upside risks to the inflation outlook and downside risks to the growth outlook.

  • While the full effects of the energy shock are still unfolding, underlying inflation has remained broadly stable so far and wages do not show a material response at this stage.

  • The increased magnitude and duration of the energy shock, as well as the implications for indirect and second-round effects, are likely to drive up inflation and lower growth.

  • Financing conditions have tightened since the Governing Council’s last meeting, which is likely to weigh on inflation and growth.

Rewritten

September 10

Today’s decision underscores the Governing Council’s commitment to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term.

October 29

The Governing Council is committed to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term.

7 removed

September 10

  • The baseline of the new ECB staff projections sees headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028.

  • For inflation excluding energy and food, the baseline foresees 2.5% in 2026, 2.6% in 2027 and 2.3% in 2028.

  • Compared with June, the baseline projection for inflation in 2026 is unchanged, while it has been revised up for 2027 and 2028.

  • The baseline projection for economic growth is 0.9% for 2026, 1.4% for 2027 and 1.5% for 2028.

  • This is an upward revision for both 2026 and 2027, mainly reflecting the greater than expected resilience of the euro area economy.

  • The outlook remains highly uncertain, with risks to the upside for inflation and to the downside for economic growth.

  • In relation to the energy shock, the updated scenarios put together by staff illustrate the broad range of outcomes for how growth and inflation would evolve under different assumptions about its intensity and duration, as well as its indirect and second-round effects.

Rewritten

September 10

With today’s decision, the Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the uncertainty caused by the conflict.

October 29

The Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the current elevated uncertainty.

Removed

September 10

  • The Governing Council decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points.

Rewritten

September 10

Accordingly, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will be increased to 2.50%, 2.65% and 2.90% respectively, with effect from 16 September 2026.

October 29

The interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will remain unchanged at 2.50%, 2.65% and 2.90% respectively.

7 unchanged sentences

  1. It will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.

  2. In particular, the Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

  3. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.

  4. The APP and PEPP portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.

  5. The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission.

  6. Moreover, the Transmission Protection Instrument is available to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission of monetary policy across all euro area countries, thus allowing the Governing Council to more effectively deliver on its price stability mandate.

  7. The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:45 CET today.

Sources: October 29 ↗ · September 10 ↗ · Statement text from the European Central Bank website (reproduction permitted with the source acknowledged); split into sentences here, wording unchanged. · Verified 2026-10-31

Cite: Heron Atlas, "European Central Bank statement: what changed", https://heronatlas.com/en/central-banks/ecb/2026-10-29/, verified 2026-10-31